Why is Bitcoin Going Up?

As of the 1st of February, 2024, the Bitcoin price was above $64,0000 with a 24-hour trading volume of over $30 billion. Over the last year, the Bitcoin price has increased by more than 83%, almost 6% in the past seven days, and 1.63% in the last 24 hours. Yet, Bitcoin analysts and JAN3 CEO Samson Mow speculate that the price may hit $1 million in a matter of weeks. 

The common question among many investors seems to be why is Bitcoin going up. What are the triggers for the exponential price growth of the world’s largest cryptocurrency? Samson Mow says, “the multiplier effect.” Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, there’s going to be a rapid injection of capital into the Bitcoin space. However, because there’s a limited supply of Bitcoin to go around, this supply shock will create a “multiplier effect” on the Bitcoin price. 

Frankly, since the Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ approval, Bitcoin value has continued to rise as more people are changing their dismissive outlook on crypto investment. However, several other drivers have led to the dramatic increase in Bitcoin price. Let’s explore these drivers in this article. 

Why is Bitcoin Going Up?

Bitcoin has been on a constant upward trajectory since October 2023, when it recorded its first break-even point ($35,000) after the 2022 crypto winter.  A critical look into the crypto space has revealed some factors that significantly contributed to this steady price rise.

1. The Institutional Investors’ Effect

Among the many reasons for the Bitcoin price rise, the influence of institutional investors and high-profile figures stands out. International giant companies like MicroStrategy have provided strong support for Bitcoin with its massive investment in Bitcoin investment and public praise. MicroStrategy CEO, Micheal Saylor, had described Bitcoin as “digital gold,” saying that the asset is “harder, stronger, faster, and smarter than any money that has preceded it.”

Based on this strong faith in the digital asset, the company led the way for other institutional investors by investing $425 million in Bitcoin between August and September 2020. Shortly after, companies like Square and Grayscale followed suit.

In the words of Amrita Ahuja, Square’s chief financial officer at the time of the company’s first Bitcoin investment, “We believe that Bitcoin has the potential to be a more ubiquitous currency in the future.” “For a company building products based on a more inclusive future, this investment is a step on that journey,” She added.

Another significant Bitcoin investment came from hedge fund One River, which invested over $600 million in cryptocurrencies and further joined forces with other investors to push crypto investment. 

These major investments and public recognition, however, seemed to begin with MicroStrategy. This explains why Jason Deane, Bitcoin analyst at Quantum Economics, attributed the Bitcoin rise to what he called the “MicroStrategy Effect.” He added that these moves have “kick-started an institutional scramble to secure as much Bitcoin as possible.”

They have triggered public support for Bitcoin from across the globe. Investors who were previously dismissive of the digital asset and termed it “fraud” have now realized that cryptocurrency might just be better than gold, although they share a lot of attributes. 

Of course, with global recognition, ultra-high net worth investors, hedge funds, and even family offices from all over the world are scrambling to lay hold on the asset. The crypto ecosystem is gradually saturated and may soon be lessened to a short supply of Bitcoin. As such, massive amounts of Bitcoin are being snapped up,  resulting in an upward price trend that the cryptocurrency has recorded in the last decade.

2. The Spot Bitcoin ETF factor

We can’t answer the question of why Bitcoin is going up without touching the just-approved spot Bitcoin ETF. The current bullish position in Bitcoin has its roots in the wave of optimism in the market, followed by the approval of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded reserves (ETFs) in January 2024.

A spot Bitcoin ETF is an investment fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin. It invests directly in Bitcoins rather than futures as an underlying asset. A spot Bitcoin ETF offers mainstream investors a simplified way to gain exposure to Bitcoin price moves in their brokerage accounts, thereby enhancing liquidity in the market. 

The journey for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF first began in 2013 when the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust filed for approval from the United States SEC. While the SEC turned down the application, it approved Bitcoin ETFs based on futures products in 2021. The SEC’s main concern was the unregulated nature of the digital asset and how approving a Bitcoin ETF could lead to fraud and manipulation. 

However, in June last year, Blackrock, an investment giant in the United States financial system, came into the picture. Blackrock’s application gave momentum to the idea of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and other companies, such as Fidelity and Franklin Templeton, followed suit.

While resolving the issue, a false message on approval was posted on SEC’s X social media account, which sent Bitcoin price up past $48,000 – that’s nearly a 1.5% daily gain. The price, however, dropped after the regulator clarified that there had been a glitch, leading to the unauthorized post.

However, in January 2024, the U.S. SEC gave all 11 financial firms the green light to offer spot Bitcoin ETFs, including investment giants like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity. The approval immediately fueled the market sentiment and caused the Bitcoin price to rise to $45,700 that same day. 

Ultimately, as the use case of a coin increases, demand will naturally grow alongside. The advent and approval of spot Bitcoin ETF marks a potential turning point for the crypto industry since its major selling point is ease of investment. 

By making it easier for regular and institutional investors to own the biggest digital asset, demand is certainly going to rise. Increased demand will always lead to scarcity, which will, in turn, shoot up commodity prices. This is what Samson Now termed “the multiplier effect.” Bitcoin’s supply cap of 21 million and distinct digital scarcity will remain its most significant value proposition.

“There’s just not enough Bitcoin to go around with so many demand catalysts like Bitcoin ETFs, … corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy and Tesla, nation states (like) El Salvador, …. people using it for global remittance and just generally people buying it for store of value,” Aaron Arnold, founder, AltcoinDaily added. “I think Bitcoin is going to surprise a lot of people.”

3. Bitcoin Halving: Squeezing the Supply

Another factor that has contributed to the Bitcoin price surge is Bitcoin halving. Analysts have postulated that there’ll be a Bitcoin reward halving by April 2024, which could push the price of Bitcoin to an all-time high of $240,000 if it follows the pattern of the previous halvings.

Bitcoin halving refers to a process where the rewards for Bitcoin mining are cut in half, and this happens every four years. It’s a mechanism built into the mining algorithm to counter inflation by creating scarcity. At this point, it becomes twice as difficult for Bitcoin miners to make money mining the asset. Bitcoin halving has occurred three times in the past, and each of these past events resulted in significant price gains. 

The idea behind halving is that reducing the pace at which new coins are created will lower the available amount of new supply. This also means that the price of the currency will increase if demand remains unaffected. This is not such a complicated concept, but a basic economic principle playing out in the crypto ecosystem—price increases when supply decreases, but demand stays the same.  

The position has proven to be workable as the previous having correlated with bust cycles and intense boom that eventually resulted in higher prices than before the events. The historic Bitcoin price is gradually steering in the direction of the previous halvings, and analysts think the impact on the current market isn’t about to change. Scott Melker, a major crypto analyst on X believes that the Bitcoin price may go as high as $240,000 as a result of the halving scheduled for April 2024 when the number of Bitcoin mined reaches 840,000.

Explaining the reason for his position, he said, “(concerning the last halving) you go from that $20,000 high up to the $69,000 high, that’s an appreciation of 250.86%.” “If we even take that next 250% and take it from that $69,000 (all-time Bitcoin price) high into the next cycle, we’re looking at Bitcoin around $240,000.”

“I know it might seem like hyperbole to talk about Bitcoin being $170,000 or $220,000 or even one day, $1 million, but if it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it.” “This cycle has worked in the past, and until I see it not working in the future, I’m going to bet that we see Bitcoin over ” 200,000.” He added.

SkyBridge Capital founder and former White House staffer, Anthony Scaramucci predicted the Bitcoin price rise over $170,000 by 2025 on halving and spot ETFs. Standard Chartered says “crypto spring” has begun and speculated that Bitcoin is on track to hit $100,000 by the end of 2024 as a result of halving. They also added that there has been a broader interest in the crypto space, and spot ETFs will likely have a positive impact on the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin halving has seemed to drive crypto bull runs in the past, and this has influenced analysts’ outlook on halving and their predictions of the Bitcoin price rise. 

4. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will Lessen the Interest Rate Hikes Strategy

Although Bitcoin recorded its all-time high price of $30,000 in June 2022, it continued to fluctuate and in May went down to around $28,000. The price drop was fueled by the uncertainty regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s increase in interest rate. Investors were rather anxious about what the outcome of the Fed’s meeting will be.

However, in March 2023, the asset surged nearly 9% and continued on that trajectory, reaching $30,000 in April 2023. Since then, Bitcoin has recorded a quick rebound in its prices and risen over 80% all through 2023 into 2024.

Crypto experts strongly believe that the surge in BTC price is a result of the market’s expectation of the Fed to likely pause its stance on interest rate hikes to limit inflation. 

5. Banking Crisis in the United States

The instability experienced in the U.S. banking sector in early 2023 opened many citizens and the world at large to other possibilities in the finance industry. People have come to realize the importance of a decentralized finance system where one has total control of their money and no banks regulating transactions. These same banks were finding it difficult to thrive in the tough economic climate.

Three mid-sized US banks, Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate, and Signature, fell in quick succession. The Silicon Valley Bank at its peak in 2021, was worth US$44 billion and had over $200 billion in assets. However, in March 2023, the bank couldn’t seem to balance its sheet and announced that it needed US$2.5 billion to repair the hole. This led to its collapse just 48 hours later, taking both its customers and commentators by surprise. 

Before the collapse, SVB was identified as America’s 16th largest deposit-taking institution and a lot of Tech firms around the globe had their cash locked in their deposit. As such the effect of the collapse spanned beyond the banks’ workers and customers, it had a nearly global reach. Two days after SVB’s collapse, on March 12, regulators in the closed Signature Bank. Deposits held by smaller banks also dropped around the same time.

Events like this which distort the entire global economic state can lead people to seek better financial options, especially ones that can act as a cushion in case of such cases.  Since the gospel of cryptocurrency was already going viral, people decided to explore the crypto world.

Conclusion

Is Bitcoin going up? Yes! Bitcoin has remained firmly in uncharted territory, after reaching a high point of $30,000 for the first time since June 2022. Each of these factors mentioned above has combined to generate a remarkable bull run for Bitcoin over the past few months.

Analysts further continue to speculate that a bull run is imminent; the rally will continue, taking root in two major events – the upcoming halving event and migration toward new institutional crypto products. However, investors should keep in mind that predicting the short-term price movements of BTC is almost impossible. While it’s exciting to know that there’s so much potential in the crypto space, also incest with caution.